Will Lockdown End on April 15?

The indication from the government is that post-April 14 there is going to be no blanket lifting on of the lockdown.

A senior minister in the government speaking to India today TV indicated that the government is looking at the idea of a "rational lockdown" which involves a micromanaged staggered exit formula.

See friends there are more than 700 districts in the country. Some of them are hotspots of coronavirus from which 21 hotspot has been recognized.

Coronavirus is spread in about 270 districts out of 700 districts. And if government  finish the lockdown from those districts, then obviously the coronavirus will spread more quickly.

Possibilities are that lock-downs will not be removed where there are cases of virus and where there are no cases of coronavirus there lockdown will be removed gradually.

How Will Government Stop Economy From Hemorrhaging.

The government assessment is that the lockdown has proved to be an effective instrument in the battle against the virus. but it is hurting the public and the economy.

A senior bureaucrat in the Finance ministry said that a back of envelope calculations shows that India's daily GDP is roughly $8 billion. "A 30 days lockdown can approximately lead to loss of little over $250 billion. if the lockdown is eased and lifted soon, the economy can recover some lost ground in financial year 2020-2021. A long lockdown will push thing beyond recovery" he said.

What Are States Thinking

Given the threat posed by the pandemic, the central government is no mood to take an unilateral decision.

That's why in his video meet with CMs, Prime Minister Narendra Modi went for the consensus route. he asked States to submit suggestions for a staggered exit.

 As more areas report positive cases the state would like to make a decision closer to the lockdown end date. State Government are accepted to send their reports by the end of this week and Prime Minister may hold another round of discussion with all chief ministers.

Already states like Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh have announced some relaxation for labours involved in harvesting wheat and other crops.

The Exit Plane

The prime minister has set up 11 empowered communities to generate feedback and assessment at the Central level. A crucial meeting of the empowered group headed by the home secretary met on Monday evening to discuss the exits routes and plans.

The committee had official from the Railways, civil aviation, Pharmaceutical, commerce and health department officials and trade and business bodies representatives.

The government is looking at the possibilities of phased and religion-specific exit out of the lockdown. The area which have reported cases, especially where the number are high, may stay under lockdown.

Zonal Lockdown 

The biggest challenge faced is what next for the surface, air and water transport. States are still not in favour of interstate movement which rules out the movement of buses etc. Through Railway is a central entity, trains cannot be operated until the states give their consent. 

Indian Railway has already created a working formula to ensure that freigh, which includes and unit erupted supply of essential like sugar salt and edible oil for the construction of the common man during the nationwide lockdown down due to Covid-19. The loading, transportation and unloading of these essential commodities have been in progress in full swing during this period.

Social Welfare 

Duration of the restrictions will also depends on the efficiency of the schemes. That's why Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during the cabinet meet today, urged the revenant Ministries to continuously monitor and ensure that benefits of Garib Kalyan Yojana keep reaching intended beneficiaries in a seamless manner.

He said that ministers should remain in touch with states and district administration, provide solution to emergent problems and formulate district level micro plans.